Wednesday Morning
November 5, 2012
President Barak Obama is poised for re-election. True it will be close, closer than the race with McCain, but Obama is positioned well enough to win.
When asked not whom they will vote for, but who will win, Americans by a large majority believe Obama wins tomorrow’s presidential election.
The track record of polling for that question shows it to be a better predictor of the outcome of presidential races than does polling based upon questions of how the person will cast her vote.
Further, this past weekend, Karl Rove and other members of the GOP’s political infrastructure, signaled retreat. Hurricane Sandy being the excuse of the moment that Rove and others have latched onto apparently for “distracting” the voters from the “real” issues.
That can and should be seen as a preemptive defense for losing.
The national GOP political infrastructure is filled with folks like Rove, Nathan Sproul, Pat Rogers, Darren White, and Jay McCleskey. The very same folks who knocked US Attorney David Iglesias out of office for refusing to use his prosecutor’s office for political purposes. With this election cycle they have stooped to new lows.
Democratic voter registration cards have been tossed into the dumpster, election officials in Florida and Ohio restricted access to poor and minority voters during early voting, and locally in Sandoval County poll watchers were instructed to illegally demand photo identification cards from voters who don’t know that they aren’t required to produce them.
Schools of Pat Rogers type lawyers are now circling state supreme courts waiting to file frivolous legal challenges to the election. While not likely to reverse the outcome such suits are part of an effort to craft the narrative that Obama is not the “legitimate” president.
Closer to home, Governor Susana Martinez has tried to interfere with the operation of the legislative branch of government in previously unheard of ways. It does not appear though that her efforts have resonated with most New Mexicans.
Take Roswell for example.
Martinez flew in for a big event to support Cliff Pirtle. Her super PAC run by McCleskey has supported Pirtle with hundreds of thousands of dollars in advertising to try and unseat Senator Tim Jennings. Martinez went to Roswell to use her high poll numbers to warm the voters to Pirtle. Pirtle, a little known political novice claiming to be a true anti-government believer hails from a ranching family that received large federal subsidies.
Only about 40 people showed up to the event.
Harvey Yates, Jr., who helped get Martinez elected governor, has not only gone strongly to bat for Jennings, but went beyond that calling on Martinez to clip the wings of McCleskey because of how low her super PAC sunk into mud.
The Roswell Daily Record, the hometown paper of Martinez chief of staff Keith Gardner, endorsed Jennings too.
The narrative from the Journal and national media outlets has been that Democrats are dispirited and that Republicans are far more likely to vote.
Yet, Democrats have been out in droves to vote early both in New Mexico and nationally. Efforts to suppress the vote have failed.
So what will Wednesday morning bring?
Structurally, probably little changes by this election.
Unlike 2010 or 2008 where there were clear signs of a wave that swept over the election, you don’t hear widespread talk about tossing out incumbents. Some may fall, but most likely that number will be very small.
Operationally, much will change. Obama having won will be better positioned to deal with GOP obstructionist actions.
Martinez though will have a huge problem.
Her chief of staff is toast. He has no ability to push her agenda (whatever that is—no one has really seen one from her yet) through the legislature. She will have lost her ability to bully and threaten, since the targets of her attacks are left standing despite her best punch.
Picture Martinez in a rowboat, with Keith Gardner and Jay McCleskey as her oars and rudder. Drifting in circles without direction while a newly empowered legislature has lost its fear of her.
Should be quite interesting.
November 5, 2012
President Barak Obama is poised for re-election. True it will be close, closer than the race with McCain, but Obama is positioned well enough to win.
When asked not whom they will vote for, but who will win, Americans by a large majority believe Obama wins tomorrow’s presidential election.
The track record of polling for that question shows it to be a better predictor of the outcome of presidential races than does polling based upon questions of how the person will cast her vote.
Further, this past weekend, Karl Rove and other members of the GOP’s political infrastructure, signaled retreat. Hurricane Sandy being the excuse of the moment that Rove and others have latched onto apparently for “distracting” the voters from the “real” issues.
That can and should be seen as a preemptive defense for losing.
The national GOP political infrastructure is filled with folks like Rove, Nathan Sproul, Pat Rogers, Darren White, and Jay McCleskey. The very same folks who knocked US Attorney David Iglesias out of office for refusing to use his prosecutor’s office for political purposes. With this election cycle they have stooped to new lows.
Democratic voter registration cards have been tossed into the dumpster, election officials in Florida and Ohio restricted access to poor and minority voters during early voting, and locally in Sandoval County poll watchers were instructed to illegally demand photo identification cards from voters who don’t know that they aren’t required to produce them.
Schools of Pat Rogers type lawyers are now circling state supreme courts waiting to file frivolous legal challenges to the election. While not likely to reverse the outcome such suits are part of an effort to craft the narrative that Obama is not the “legitimate” president.
Closer to home, Governor Susana Martinez has tried to interfere with the operation of the legislative branch of government in previously unheard of ways. It does not appear though that her efforts have resonated with most New Mexicans.
Take Roswell for example.
Martinez flew in for a big event to support Cliff Pirtle. Her super PAC run by McCleskey has supported Pirtle with hundreds of thousands of dollars in advertising to try and unseat Senator Tim Jennings. Martinez went to Roswell to use her high poll numbers to warm the voters to Pirtle. Pirtle, a little known political novice claiming to be a true anti-government believer hails from a ranching family that received large federal subsidies.
Only about 40 people showed up to the event.
Harvey Yates, Jr., who helped get Martinez elected governor, has not only gone strongly to bat for Jennings, but went beyond that calling on Martinez to clip the wings of McCleskey because of how low her super PAC sunk into mud.
The Roswell Daily Record, the hometown paper of Martinez chief of staff Keith Gardner, endorsed Jennings too.
The narrative from the Journal and national media outlets has been that Democrats are dispirited and that Republicans are far more likely to vote.
Yet, Democrats have been out in droves to vote early both in New Mexico and nationally. Efforts to suppress the vote have failed.
So what will Wednesday morning bring?
Structurally, probably little changes by this election.
Unlike 2010 or 2008 where there were clear signs of a wave that swept over the election, you don’t hear widespread talk about tossing out incumbents. Some may fall, but most likely that number will be very small.
Operationally, much will change. Obama having won will be better positioned to deal with GOP obstructionist actions.
Martinez though will have a huge problem.
Her chief of staff is toast. He has no ability to push her agenda (whatever that is—no one has really seen one from her yet) through the legislature. She will have lost her ability to bully and threaten, since the targets of her attacks are left standing despite her best punch.
Picture Martinez in a rowboat, with Keith Gardner and Jay McCleskey as her oars and rudder. Drifting in circles without direction while a newly empowered legislature has lost its fear of her.
Should be quite interesting.